Correlation, causation, religious thinking and bad parenting

A couple of years ago, some friends and I had a discussion on the merits of accepting something as true based on subjective experience. As an example of what I mean by subjective experience, imagine saying a prayer and then observing a rainbow. There are those who have had such an experience and concluded that this was a sign from God. When such an experience leads to the conviction that the Christian God exists, I would call this a "truth" that is believed on the basis of a subjective experience. I am pretty certain that the rainbow formed independent of the prayer. But how can I know?

There are many examples of things that people accept based on subjective experience that can be shown false based on objective evidence derived through the scientific method. For instance, certain Christians were convinced that a weeping Mary painting was a miracle (subjective). An analysis of the tears found them to be made of olive oil (objective); and later, a hidden camera caught the perpetrators pouring olive oil on the painting (objective). This evidence of tampering did not dissuade the faithful from following their hearts and believing that the tears were still a miracle. Given the strength of the evidence, the tears were clearly not a miracle.

Similarly, many people believe that prayers are answered (subjective). An experiment was designed by true believers to test their conviction, which included members of prestigious institutions such as Harvard, and found that there was no connection between prayer and outcome as they had believed. Though objective evidence falsified the hypothesis, many members of the religious research team said their faith in God was strengthened by the results. I find this conclusion totally illogical and an example of how religious thinking leads to false belief.

I define religious thinking more broadly as the process in which conclusions are accepted as true based solely on subjective evidence; which, by the way, is not limited to faith and religion. This is in no way meant to be disrespectful to those who are religions. Rather, the term is apropos on the basis that such thinking is common amongst the religious. Indeed, many religions demand that people accept dogma on faith. To many members of the clergy, the thought of asking for objective proof is near blasphemy.

There are many examples of religious thinking that are found to lead to false conclusions when compared against objectively-derived evidence, and I will not provide an exhaustive list. Those who are interested in this topic can read the Skeptical Inquirer, an excellent publication filled with many interesting articles. My point is that subjective experience is shown over and over again to be a faulty method for determining the truth. If this is so, how can one justify the use of subjective experience as a source of true information?

One may argue that religious thinking is harmless. Often, such thinking is deadly.

Consider the hysteria over vaccinations and a purported link to autism. Many parents are convinced that their children got autism as a result of a vaccination because the onset of symptoms started soon after the inoculation. This correlation does not prove causation. The observation can be explained by the simple fact that the typical age of a child with the onset of autism symptoms happens to coincide with the recommended age for inoculations. Thus, it is no wonder that many children show symptoms of autism shortly after a vaccination.

Studies by a British Scientist that reported a connection between vaccinations and autism was later found to be fraudulent, not to mention inconsistent with the body of scientific evidence. Even with objective evidence to the contrary, many parents are convinced that inoculations are dangerous and have decided not to inoculate their children.

Because of decreased vaccination rates, childhood diseases such as Pertussis (Whooping Cough) are on the rise. In 2010, 10 infants died during an outbreak in California, where about 10,000 cases were reported (see the CDC website). As fewer children become inoculated, the number of cases and deaths will skyrocket. Yet 48 out of the 50 states in the U.S. allow parents to choose not to inoculate their children based on religious or philosophical grounds. The government is allowing religious thinking to trump scientifically established truth.

To protect the public health, it is crucial that nearly 100% of the population be inoculated. When religion affects the welfare of others, it should not be used as an excuse for an exemption.

Emotions complicate matters. It is difficult to watch dejected parents with autistic children carrying banners and protesting against the "evil" drug companies that make vaccinations that "hurt our children" (subjective). The scientific argument is seen as a corporate coverup, and legislation as a sign of government corruption (subjective). Even so, reason must triumph. The scientific method is specifically designed to remove subjective bias, especially when emotions cloud good judgment.

As I wrote in a previous post, this may brand me as an arrogant scientist. However, there are certain things that science knows with great certainty. In such cases, we must enact intelligent policy that protects the public. In short, strong objective evidence must always trump the subjective.

That is not to say that all subjective experiences should be dismissed.

When choosing a spouse, believing in God, or marveling at the greatness of one's own children, we should all be free to indulge our fancies. However, religious thinking must be resoundingly rejected when imposed on others, especially when it contradicts well-established objective knowledge.

Writing, writing, writing...

This has been a great summer. The weather has been gorgeous and we are home in lovely Pullman. My original summer travel plans, which I was finalizing in early spring, had me flying out to Belgium to collaborate with my former grad student Xavi; and, colleague Koen Clays. Belgium would then be the staging point for my other trips, which included giving a Keynote address in Pretoria, South Africa, a stop in Poland to give a plenary lecture followed by a trip to Italy to present an invited talk in beautiful Cetraro at the NOMA meeting. Before heading back to the U.S., I would have stopped in Dublin to attend ICONO, an international meeting that has its roots in Pullman back in 1991 when I was an upstart faculty member.

However, the ICONO meeting was postponed until September. Since ICONO and NOMA were my two priorities, I decided to cancel all of my other commitments, reducing my travels to 17 days from 45. We took a 6 day break between my colloquium in Rome and the NOMA meeting in the south to drive around Italy with friends. This was an excellent idea, turning a hectic work trip partially into fun.

As a result of these abridged travel plans, I have been in Pullman for a larger fraction of the summer than usual. The weather has been heavenly, and working in my study with a cool breeze through the open windows is rejuvenating.

I had also planned to be writing several proposals now, but these good intentions were also placed on hold. Instead, I am working on almost a dozen papers that I hope will be submitted by the end of the summer. Proposal writing will continue in the fall.

Typically, summer salary comes from my grants. This summer, I decided not to pay myself for two of the three summer months. Part of the motivation was to have enough funds to pay all of my students since one of my grants is running out and a second grant was cancelled in the first year (out of 5) because of budget problems at the air force. As a result, I am working four to eight hours a day rather than the usual sunrise to midnight pace. This has given me time to decompress from a very busy life. Now I can take some time off to water the plants, catch an episode of a mindless comedy, or read the paper without guilt.

Most of my time these days is spent writing papers. Surprisingly, not having so many responsibilities to balance, I have found the process enjoyable. It's akin to organizing a photo album. As one mounts each photo, memories of people and events flow through the mind, leaving the reminiscer in a hypnotic state. Similarly, as I write each sentence of a manuscript, I recall the moments when ideas were conceived and grew. The memory of stimulating discussions with colleagues and students rekindles the flow of endorphins, allowing me to relive in my mind the birth and eventually the development of new theories or the discovery of new phenomena.

After my mornings with new manuscripts, I have a relaxed lunch, then meet with my students in the lab, interpreting new puzzles and germinating new ideas. This summer, life is as I had imagined for an academic. However, I know that the hectic life will return in less then 2 months, so there is some urgency to my rest. In the meantime, I am withdrawing into my blissful state.

Ciao!

So much to learn...

Our trip to Italy combined some work and fun. After giving my colloquium in Rome, we drove north, stopping in Orvieto, Luca, Florence, Pisa and San Gimignano to see the sights. Then, we drove south to Cetraro (the site of my conference), stopping in Caserta for the night to break up the long drive. In Cetraro, I spent the week at the NOMA conference, where I gave a talk and interacted with many colleagues. Our trip ended with a drive up to Rome to catch our plane back to the US, with a stop in Pompeii to visit the amazing ancient city.

Upon getting back, the work that had piled up during my absence hit me like a wrecking ball. While sitting at my desk writing and responding to zillions of emails, I noticed a delightful message from World Scientific press stating, "We are pleased to introduce a new title that may interest you." Usually, I reflexively delete such emails, but this time I glanced at the title, "Fractional Calculus." Immediately, my mind raced back to my high school days when I was learning calculus concurrently with learning to drive a car.

I had noticed that the second derivative was represented as the square of the derivative operator; so, when taking a differential geometry class at a local university (driving there with my new license), I asked the professor if there was any meaning to a fractional derivative - that is, the derivative operator to a fractional power. He pondered the question for a moment and answered "yes." He then described how one would approach the problem. I was intrigued, but the issue had never come up again, until today.

With a little thought about the basics, the idea of a fractional derivative is quite simple. For example, consider the derivative operator to the 1/2 power. When operating twice, it should give the familiar first derivative. Using this fact allows one to develop the mathematics of fractional calculus. Similarly, a negative power can be expressed as an integral. Even complex powers are possible.

This got me very excited. I was tempted to drop everything to study the topic in great detail. Beginning with the Wikipedia page on fractional calculus, I skimmed over the introductory material that described how the gamma function is an important part of fractional calculus as factorials are to integer calculus. This makes sense given that the gamma function reduces to factorials for the integers; and in the rest of the interval connects the points between the factorial.

I read further, and found that one can formulate fractional calculus using the Laplace transform. Ironically, I had gotten intrigued by the Laplace transform when teaching statistical mechanics last semester. At that time, I had received the Dover book catalog, a treasure trove of inexpensive math and physics books. As I skimmed through the catalogue, I saw a book titled, "The Laplace Transform." I could not resist buying it. I also bought a companion book that teaches mathematically deficient people like me how to do mathematical proofs. Sadly, while those two books sat on my desk for months, I only had enough time to read a few pages.

This fact stifled my temptation to buy the book on fractional calculus. But, I was reminded of all the beautiful and wondrous topics that remain to be learned. Though I do not have the time to chew over all the profound topics that have been produced by the human mind, I take pleasure in the privilege of mastering a microscopic fraction of it all, and having the opportunity to contribute an infinitesimal fraction.

In awe of majesty

The other day, we drove into the small Italian town of Orvieto, which is nestled in the hills of northern Italy. We parked our car near an old school, paid the parking machine, and walked up the hill to the central square. When we made the turn around the bend, the magnificent Orvieto Cathedral appeared in front of us. It was absolutely stunning.

The photos on the internet do not capture its beauty nor the awe that one feels standing in front of this huge structure, decorated throughout with centimeter-sized tiles laid carefully by teams of craftsmen. It must have taken thousands of man-years to complete.

The next day, we toured the walled town of Lucca, at one time home to a hundred churches and cathedrals. As we we walked from block to block, we saw many of them - magnificent pieces of art as well as impressive feats of engineering. We soaked in similar sights in Florence and Pisa.

In stark contrast, in the Museo Galileo in Florence, I found myself standing in front of a glass showcase with two modest telescopes that appeared to be made of lacquered cardboard. These Galilean creations, inferior both in quality and size to the small finder scopes that are attached to my telescopes, revolutionized our understanding of the solar system through careful observations of Jupiter's moons. In one great insight, Galileo moved the center of the solar system from the earth to the sun, 93 million miles away. I was in awe of his intellect. The beauty of a thousand exquisite cathedrals pale in comparison to the intellectual model of the solar system that he constructed.

In addition to discovering spots on the sun and craters on the moon, which shattered the Church's teaching of the perfection of the heavens, Galileo set the foundations for Newtonian mechanics and the theory of gravity, which describe the motions of the moons of Jupiter, the planets around the sun, the sun around our galaxy, and the motions of galaxies within larger clusters. More important than his discoveries, Galileo opened our eyes and minds to a new way of thinking - leading to an ever-deeper understanding of our universe that continues to our times.

While the priests pontificated on the virtues of ritual and the absolute truths held by the church, Galileo was uncovering the real truth, overturning centuries of dogma. It wasn't until 1822 that the Church lifted its ban on Galileo's writings, more than 200 years after he first turned his telescope to the heavens. In 1992, the Church apologized for its treatment of Galileo. This one man discovered the true beauty of the universe, which will continue to display its splendors well after the cathedrals have crumbled.

I told you so

I recall reading an article "Drowning New Orleans," by Mark Fischetti in the October 2001 issue of Scientific American that warned of the large losses of property and life that would result should a large hurricane strike New Orleans. The same article recommended simple remedies to the system of levies that would more than pay for themselves in the event of a disaster. A few years later, Hurricane Katrina did exactly what the article had predicted. As is common, warnings from scientists were ignored and the damage far outweighed the cost of prevention.

Part of the resistance to global warming research may stem from the high cost of taking action relative to the perceived uncertainties in climate research. However, other disasters are waiting to happen that should be taken seriously. The potential culprit? Our sun.

In 1859, British amateur astronomer Richard Carrington reported his observations of a huge solar flare that produced aura from earth's poles down to the equator and disabled the telegraph system. Today, such an event would knock out power service to 130 million Americans, not to mention its affect on the rest of the world. Many power transformers would be fried in the process, and could take years to replace given today's manufacturing capacity. As a result, some communities would be without power for years.

The science connecting solar flares and damage to the power grid is well understood and not in doubt. The only unknown is when. It is therefore prudent to take preventative action that protects us from the immense social and economic consequences of this inevitable event.

Hurricane Katrina is an example of a natural phenomena whose effects could have been mitigated had the politicians heeded the warnings of scientists. I hope that scientists will never have the opportunity for an "I told you so" moment when it comes to the power grid. We are all too dependent on electricity to take chances.

The dawn of a new intellect

I recently read a transcript of an interview with Jane Goodall. When asked about her most surprising discovery about chimps, she answered that it is their similarity to humans. They use tools and live in communities in much the same way as primitive human tribes.

Like humans, chimps also have a dark side that enables them to commit violent acts. They engage in brutal warfare over territory and are known to commit murder within their group. Like us, they also show compassion and evidence of morality. What distinguishes humans from our primate cousins, Goodall believes, is our intellect. I agree.

The ability to communicate abstract concepts places us on a higher cognitive plane.

The development of written language extended human memory from an individual's brain to a vast array of external media - first stone and paper, and now computer chips and magnetic media. Writing allows records from the past to be kept and transmitted to future generations. Even more importantly, written language provides the means to develop and disseminate ideas that can be argued and refined by future generations.

I believe that the development of science and mathematics is leading us to the next higher plane. Not only does this brand of inquiry lead to a deeper understanding of our universe, from the tiniest to the largest scales, but gives us the means to control our environment and predict the future. It unfolds before us a new world of abstract thought that provides the foundations for the next intellectual revolution.

The acquisition of higher cognitive abilities and the development of language are intertwined, each reinforcing the other. Mathematics is the language of science that takes us into realms that are not directly observable by our senses. We can begin to understand concepts such as curvature of space-time and quantum entanglement through a painstaking process that builds on the foundations of concrete concepts, perceived directly by our senses, to a world that is foreign to common sense. Such abstract tools allow us to navigate new realms that lead to ever deeper insights.

Knowledge gained through abstract reasoning can be commandeered to predict and control our physical and social environment. Alternatively, we can bask in the sheer pleasure of understanding the beauty and mystery on which rests all that surrounds us or found within. Even our thoughts, feelings, spirit, and convictions can be formulated and understood in the language of the abstract.

Knowledge empowers, especially when available to everyone. Literacy was in large part responsible for releasing the power of human creativity that solved problems, inspired us, and made improvements in the quality of life. We can each read about current events, debate issues in bars or on the internet, and use our accumulated knowledge to try to make our world a better place.

In the not so distant past, an elite group of priests disseminated information to the illiterate masses. This process allowed information to become inadvertently corrupted or deliberately manipulated to suit the purposes of the perpetrators. Similarly, today, a great wall separates scientists and the masses. The next revolutionary leap will sprout from universal scientific and mathematical literacy.

Over time, I can see religion fading into a relic of the past, with morality firmly rooted as the topic of scientific discourse. The new book, The Moral Landscape - by Sam Harris, is a foreshadowing of new ways of thinking about morality using the tools of science. Contrary to common belief, science can have a lot to say not only about how, but to define the "oughts."

While the pace of new discoveries has been growing exponentially, some areas of fundamental science seem to be hitting a dead end. For example, scientific puzzles such as the unification of forces and the distribution of particle masses continue to frustrate the brightest minds. Is string theory a step in the right direction, or are some of its more crazy implications a sign that our minds and our science are not equipped to understand such deep questions? Are physicists like dogs with their leashes wrapped around a tree, not having the cognitive ability to see the solution?

These questions hint at cognitive planes that lie beyond our reach. We would be no more able to appreciate higher cognitive planes than a dog can appreciate integral calculus or an amoeba the feeling of loyalty to a master.

A broader perspective on such issues comes from viewing the evolution of life as a series of distinct snapshots. The first frame would show the simple elements under the excitation of lightening and the second would show the amino acids that formed as a result. Then would follow a frame showing a collection of single cells, and next, colonies of cells that communicate with each other through chemical signals. Next, groupings of cells with specific functionality would be seen to have evolved into organs that make macroscopic creatures. Finally, groupings of creatures would be seen communicating with each other using primitive sounds and gestures, followed by the amazing evolutionary leap that leads to language, then abstract reasoning. What image is forming on the next frame?

Perhaps the human mind will someday evolve to the next level. Alternatively, perhaps the internet and other technologies that connect us to each other will continue to become more sophisticated, producing a larger human/electronic organism that is today on the verge of emergence. We may be as much aware of such a super brain, distributed over billions of people, as an individual neuron is aware of consciousness. Such a transformation may already be in progress without our notice.

I would prefer a future in which the human brain evolves to the point where it can reason on a higher cognitive plane; but, a super creature that reasons through the thoughts of billions may be the next evolutionary step needed to get there. Perhaps one day, in a display of grand irony, such a super creature will seek to understand its own super consciousness by studying the operation of single brains and the nature of their interconnections while being unaware of the emergence of yet higher levels of consciousness.

The response function and the underlying truth

At the age of seven or eight, I recall experiencing a recurring feeling of vulnerability. Being the only child of immigrants, with all of my aunts, uncles, and grandparents overseas - most of them trapped behind the iron curtain of the powerful Soviet Union of the early 1960s - I could sense my precarious existence. The thought of being orphaned was often on my mind.

This angst lead me through various imagined scenarios. What if both my parents had died, but were surreptitiously replaced by artificial beings who were programed to react to all events exactly as would my real parents? If I hurt myself, they would hug me with facial expressions of sympathy; and, would provide the same level of emotional and material comforts as my real parents. I concluded that I would probably be just as happy. If there were no test that could betray their artificial nature, how would I know otherwise?

The scientific method works in much the same way. Controlled experiments are designed to observe the reactions of a system under various conditions to deduce its "essence." The observed behavior under the influence of an external stimulus is called a response function, and provides a window into the inner workings of everything. The characterization of my parents in terms of the sum total of all possible responses to all my possible actions defined their being. The old expression "we are what we do" is not far from saying that a full characterization of our response function defines us. We are all judged by our works - be it our compassion, diligence, intelligence, empathy, selflessness, greed, selfishness, etc.

Thermodynamics serves as an instructive example from physics. The heat capacity of a material is a response function that quantifies the change in temperature (response) per unit of heat supplied (input). Other examples are a material's compressibility; in optics, the nonlinear susceptibility; and in material structure determinations, the scattering cross-section. All of these quantities are measured by poking things and observing how they respond, from which we deduce the underlying properties.

Such simple experiments have lead to some of the deepest concepts developed by the human mind. For example, statistical mechanics seeks to explain all of thermodynamics in terms of the motions of a large number of tiny particles. Since materials responded to all experiments as predicted under the assumption of the existence of small and undetectable particles, early twentieth century scientists begrudgingly accepted the notion that for all practical purposes, materials were made of such stuff.

Whether the result of great intellect or luck, the particle picture turned out to be accurate. New experiments were designed that more directly confirmed the existence of molecules, atoms, and subatomic particles. For example, bubble chambers yield tracks of the paths of elementary particles -- from which their masses and charges can be determined. By the end of the twentieth century, the scanning tunneling microscope (STM) was developed, making it possible to not only directly image atoms and molecules, but atoms could be picked up and placed on a smooth surface at will. One early demonstration of this technique spelled out the letters IBM by intentionally arranging a group of atoms on a flat crystal surface.

This approach we call science, which views phenomena from new angles, leads to an ever more precise characterization of our world, leading us closer to what I would call the truth. The picture becomes more and more in focus as we become more clever in our prodding and poking.

Due to its complexity, studies of the human mind until modern times had been limited to measuring its response function in much the same way as I defined my parents. Breakthroughs in physics, biochemistry and new technologies now allow us to probe the brain directly with noninvasive methods. While an individual is responding to old-fashioned stimuli such as hunger, lust, satisfaction, and deep thought, the neural activity of the brain can be mapped. The STM brought us pictures of atoms while brain-scanning technology has brought us images of thought and emotion.

One can rightly argue that seeing an image of the brain while the subject is having an experience in response to stimuli does not imply that thoughts and experience reside in the complex firing of neurons. Rather, it could be merely a byproduct of thought. A definitive test would be the deliberate creation of thought, emotion, or sensation using a direct stimulus of the brain. Indeed, researchers have been able to reproduce not only simple sensations, but have been able to make subjects feel spirituality, unity with the universe, and a divine presence.

As experimental technology becomes more sophisticated, and researchers more clever, we are finding direct evidence that those qualities that define our humanness and spirituality are all the result of material processes. Ironically, my father is almost 95 years old, so I am yet to be orphaned. The fact that he is defined by his response function and I by mine does not detract from the meaning derived from human interactions. This knowledge enriches my life with the understanding of how the material world is interconnected and I value the incredible privilege of being a locus of material that has arranged itself in a way to give me consciousness and loved ones, friends and collegues with whom I can share my experiences.