Trump Makes Me Cringe

How can Trump's supporters not cringe when they listen to him speak?  He says so many inane things, is incapable of reasoning, and has no grasp of of how things work.  When defending his withdrawal of troops from Syria, he implies that Syria wasn't worth it because it is just sand.  Does he not realize that ISIS was defeated in Syria and that they will come back with a vengeance when the Kurds, their captors, are ousted by the Turks?  There is bipartisan condemnation for his actions, but he persists.  Check out the incredulity of the note taker in the background when he mentions sand.  She can't believe her ears.

Trump has turned his people into clowns.  Pompeo and Pence effused about Trump's insights and how his leadership led to a cease fire to give the Kurds safe passage to evacuate the 20-mile buffer zone, the very area that they planned to defend from the Turks.  This had been an autonomous region for the Kurds, so not only did Trump let them down, but he basically negotiated the surrender of the Kurds on Turkey's terms.  Now they will be forced to make alliances with other factions in the middle east, which could lead to more bloodshed, destabilize the region, and threaten US security.  And guess who are the beneficiaries?  Russia, Syria and Iran.  Did his towers in Turkey influence his decision?

The letter Trump wrote to Erdogan (above) is equally cringe-worthy.  He writes with the maturity and sophistication of a fifth-grader. When it was originally released, many serious reporters thought it was a joke and dug deeper to confirm that it was genuine.  Surprise, it was!

News programs repeat over and over that Trump's crime with Ukraine was enlisting a foreign power to fabricate dirt on his political rivals, when in fact it is more serious.  His crime is extortion -- withholding hundreds of million of dollars from Ukraine, funds that were allocated by congress, until they complied with his scheme.  This is wrong on many levels, including the sad fact that Ukraine has been working on cleaning up corruption.  Now the US is leading the way flaunting corruption as acceptable and forcing others to do the same.

Trump continues to deny it all, but there are tapes and records that tell the true story.  How can his supporters not see his lies?

Kremlin operatives drank campaign when Trump was elected, predicting that he would give Russia greater influence over Ukraine and Syria, and he has complied.  This begs the question if Trump is indeed a Putin's Puppet.  It sure looks that way.

To top it off, it was just reported that the G7 will be held at Trump's Doral complex.  How is forcing G7 attendees with their huge entourages to attend the meeting at his resort not a brazen disregard for the emoluments clause?  Do the republicans not have the balls to say no?

The icing on the cake for Russia will be an invitation to the G7, making it the G8 again.  Strongmen of the world will be more brazen when they see that bad behavior is rewarded, and democracies around the world will be weakened.

I'm hopeful that our representatives will have the guts to expose Trump for what he is, a gangster in the white house who is using his power to promote his personal agenda at the expense of our national interest.  Shame on all of those who sit in silence.  The US needs to once again lead the world by example.

Sorry for the rant, but I'm pissed.

The Honesty of the Media and Politicians

The honesty and accuracy of politicians and news networks as of January 2019 based on factchecking of their own words.  The truthfulness of individual politicians and news networks varies little over time.  Source for data: politifact.com.

By the Numbers

More often than not, debate is not informed by data, especially if it originates form a clash between ideologies.  In response, I started a new semi-regular piece in the Moscow-Pullman Daily News that I call "By the Numbers,"  where I present data in the form of a plot or table on a topical subject.  It appears in the spot often used for political comics in the opinion section, but does not espouse an opinion. Below is my submission that appeared in the January 3, 2019 issue.

Obama vs Trump Stock Performance

Percentage change of S&P 500 from inauguration day to the end of the second calendar year of the presidential term.  Net change: Obama Term #1: +56.2%.  Obama Term #2: +38.6%.  Trump: +10.4%.  Aside from the crash around Day 50 following the burst housing bubble, the performance of the S&P 500 for both Obama terms exceeded Trump’s market performance to date

We all know that correlation does not imply causation, so such a graph of stock performance is not an indication of a president's success in economic policy.  But since Trump uses the stock market as a measure of his success, I thought it would be useful to show the actual data.  By Trump's own measure, he pales in comparison to Obama.

Stay tuned for more data.

The facts about Trump and the Stock Market

The president points to the stock market as an indicator of his success.  The plot shows stock prices as quantified by the S&P 500 index by date starting at the end of George W. Bush’s administration.  The data is widely available and undisputed.

Short-term fluctuations are fueled by rumors, unexpected world events, natural disasters, etc.  Longer term large and enduring changes reflect fundamental economic shifts.  For example, the collapse of the mortgage markets a decade ago led to a significant long-term drop in the S&P 500.  In response, the Bush administration enacted the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) on October 3, 2008 and the Obama administration’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) became effective on February 17, 2009.  TARP targeted institutions while ARRA focused on saving and creating jobs by investing in infrastructure, education, health, and renewable energy.  The sustained recovery of the markets bolsters the claim that TARP and ARRA were effective, though this data alone is not proof.

The blue trend line shows strong growth in stock valuations since Obama’s first inauguration on January 20, 2009, an eight-year, 16% annually-compounded growth rate, reflecting a healthy economy under Obama.  Based on Trump’s own emphasis on the performance of the stock market as a measure of success, calling Obama a disaster on economic policy is a blatant lie.

When Obama was re-elected, Trump Tweeted “The stock market and US dollar are both plunging today. Welcome to @BarackObama’s second term.”  Trump’s implication that Obama’s re-election was the start of an economic downturn was wrong again; the S&P 500 soared over the two following years.  The red line shows the average slope.  After a hiccup for less than a year, the stock market again rose steadily at the same rate.

On August 3rd Trump tweeted, “Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels. Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn't just happen!”  The market did hit an all-time high, but the rate of increase is the same now as it had been over the previous two years. Trump’s presidency has not accelerated growth in the equity markets.

A tweet on October 11, 2017 stated, “It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented Stock Market growth since the election.  Need tax cuts” The stock market’s performance has been reported by every major news outlet, but its rate of growth is not unprecedented and its trajectory has not changed with Trump on the scene, which the mainstream news media reports accurately to Trump’s chagrin.

The president uses his “success” to bolster his economic credentials to argue for his tax cut plan.  In formulating tax policy, we can’t just trust Trump.  The weekly wages of blue-collar workers fell after the Reagan tax cuts and remain weak to today and recent growing corporate profits and availability of capital have barely increased worker wages.  The congressional Budget Office estimates a $1.7 trillion dollar deficit in the republican tax overhaul plan. Trump needs to provide evidence for his assertions to earn broader support.

Trump is right that stock valuations rise if regulations are lifted to increase profitability of companies.  However, profits over the next couple of years are not worth the cost of long-term irreversible harm.  He is proud of the GDP’s growth even through a damaging hurricane, but his climate policies will lead to more severe weather in the future, adversely affecting long-term productivity.  Addressing climate change is an economic necessity.

Society must identify its priorities and desired outcomes through healthy debate.  Then policies for getting results need to be intelligently crafted and based on facts.  Legislative action should be taken only after proposed bills survive public scrutiny and pass objective measures of effectiveness.

Rather than presiding over debate informed by careful analysis of the facts, Trump and his cohorts stifle dissent, cherry pick the data and misrepresent the facts.  As a result, the current tax plan is not well thought out and is being rushed through for a vote even though it is greatly flawed.  Our country needs further deliberations to pass responsible tax reform that affects needed change.

Trump just wants a legislative win, regardless of the consequences.

Sad.

The Rise of a Dictator

Writing puts ideas into a visual form, aiding the writer in clarifying his or her thoughts.  The written word is also an efficient means for transmitting information that is well suited to contemplation.  In contrast, Trump tweets and arouses his followers by yanking at their emotional strings, blinding them to reason.  It matters little to them that much of what Trump says is utter nonsense that often contradicts his own recorded words from the past.  There is no need to consult the "crooked" media.  One can easily verify Trump's duplicitousness through his Twitter feed or recordings of his own words that can be found across the internet.

Trump spews many lies. Each one demands a rebuttal that is grounded in fact and an analysis that through logic illustrates the dangerous consequences of his intended actions.  Unfortunately, the sheer volume of lies and inaccuracies makes it impossible to have a true discourse that leads to effective policies.

Each day, I intend to write about his most crazy utterance, but there are just too many of them to keep up.  So instead, I decided to let off some steam by writing this post.

I feel that it is in the best interest of us all to preserve our democracy -- a precious but fragile gift.  Democracy allowed Trump to win, and our citizenry deserves a chance to vote Trump out of office in four years if his actions fail to enrich our society.

In closing, below I have produced a list of techniques needed to become a dictator.  How many of these has Trump used and how far down the list will he get?

• 1. Use fear to convince your population to give up its freedom for security
• 2. Identify a scapegoat group that you can blame for society's ills
• 3. Discredit the press to limit information, maximize disinformation, and prevent scrutiny of your actions.
• 4. Weaken the judiciary so that you can be above the law
• 5. Imprison the opposition
• 6. Surround yourself with miliary leaders that are loyal to you
• 7. Empower the police to control the population rather than protect it
• 8. When things go wrong, blame others and lie
• 9. Use your power to enrich yourself

Letter to Trump

Dear Mr. Trump,

How can you call Hillary Clinton a liar when according to Politifact you lie over 70% of the time and she lies less than 30% of the time?   Don’t blame this inconvenient fact on the “liberal” media.  The world is not divided into only liberals and conservatives who buy the party line.  Unlike you, the geeks at fact-checking organizations are interested in the truth.

How can we not believe your female accusers when their charges portray the same man that you brag about being?  The respectable people that your victims confided in witnessed the anguish you caused, bolstering the likely veracity of their claims.  The fact that some other men behave deplorably does not absolve you.

Why do you call yourself a successful businessperson when you lost almost a billion dollars in a boom economy by making several unwise investments?  Through self-promotion, you gained celebrity status and used it lure investors into bad deals where you won and everyone else lost.  You routinely default on your financial obligations to small businesses and litigate against people that have offended you.  Ethical business people make deals that benefit all parties.  Will you be able as president to suppress your ego and represent the best interest of the United States?

How can you be trusted to make complex decisions when you do not solicit input from experts?  Solutions to modern-day problems require an informed leader who carefully weighs input from knowledgeable sources.  You treat your opinions as fact even when they contradict the evidence.  You state that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese government.  Nonsense.  Even a well-seasoned PhD physicist such as myself is unqualified to judge science outside my field without input from the experts.  My conclusion that anthropomorphic climate change is happening draws on my knowledge of science and the consilience of evidence in the climate science literature.  Do you plan to continue to spew uninformed opinions that go against the evidence?  Doing so as the most powerful world leader could jeopardize the existence of humanity.

How could you not have known that Russia had invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea?  When informed that Russia had already done so, you stated that it was your understanding that the people of Crimea rather be with Russia.  How would you react if Mexico annexed southern California because people there would rather be with Mexico?  Those with aspirations of being a world leader should be keenly aware of current events. 

 

Why do you bash the media?  The founding fathers so highly valued the need for a free and independent press that they elevated this principle to prominence by including it in the first amendment.  The media is an essential part of our democracy.  It informs our citizens and keeps politicians honest.  The media, which you so despise, has given you $3 billion dollars of free coverage, so do not complain when the facts investigators uncover are inconvenient.  Punishing the media would be an affront to the core principles of our democracy.

How can the elections be rigged?  A recent study showed only 30 cases of voter fraud out of a billion ballots cast.  You claimed, “People that have died 10 years ago are still voting,” and cited a report that found 1.8 million deceased people remain on voter registration rolls.  The fact that it takes time to remove people from the voting rolls does not mean that others are voting in their places.  In fact, studies show that such cases are extremely rare.  You also claim that “illegal immigrants are voting,” citing research from Old Dominion University.  The Harvard professor who manages the database says that this study misuses the data and that in fact very few undocumented residents are voting.  If such election fraud really existed, don’t you think that the offended party would be investigating?

How can we discount your behavior as indicative of an individual who is adept at self-promotion but shows contempt for the facts, takes pleasure in unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, refuses to accept criticism, acts impulsively, and lacks the nuanced thinking needed to make rational decisions?  Even if your ideology coincided with mine, a Trump presidency would terrify me.  Can you convince us that you have the temperament and wisdom to lead this country?  Your actions provide the strongest evidence that you do not.  Though you repeat how great things will be if elected, you have not outlined a plan to get us there, nor do you appear to have any new inspirational ideas.  Instead, you offer scapegoats and platitudes.

In my opinion, there is no evidence that you are fit to lead our nation.  Your inability to reason logically and your refusal to heed expert advice that contradicts your gut will be disastrous for our democracy and civilization.  However, if the people elect you, I will go along with the results and work towards proving me wrong in these assertions.

Sincerely,

Mark G. Kuzyk